We now live in an age where security threats have been place above natural threats.
As Tahrir Square become the symbol of opposition resistance and a landmark for democracy in the whole Arab world, it is important that I share with you what I consider to be important facts on the Egyptian economy. My thesis in this short analysis is that the popular discontent is rooted in the economic hardship and not in the popular request for democracy although it played (is playing) a role.
Egypt is the economic powerhouse of the Middle East, however we can help it but recognize that it is a poor country. Egyptians are in big whole, and they've been there for a while despite reforms over the past 5 years, and must dig themselves out of it with some serious reforms.
Egypt is the number one wheat importer in the world with 9,500,000 metric tons/year ahead of Iran, Brazil, Algeria, and Japan. The primary obstacle to wheat production in Egypt is the lack of water. As a matter of fact, Saudi Arabia scaled back its wheat production project shortly after realizing that it had drained its aquifers. The US is the number one world exporter of wheat, followed by Russia.
It is worth noting that Egypt has a population estimated at 80 million; second in Africa after Nigeria with about 160 million inhabitants. Egypt has 1 million new births each year. Although women want family planning, they can’t have it because the Egyptian government doesn’t allow it. The top 20 failing states have rapid growing population which is unsustainable. The situation will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. To a large extend, women are in the margin of the Egyptian workforce. The must be progressively integrated in the workforce through appropriate education and training programs.
Egypt is the economic powerhouse of the Middle East, however we can help it but recognize that it is a poor country. Egyptians are in big whole, and they've been there for a while despite reforms over the past 5 years, and must dig themselves out of it with some serious reforms.
Egypt is the number one wheat importer in the world with 9,500,000 metric tons/year ahead of Iran, Brazil, Algeria, and Japan. The primary obstacle to wheat production in Egypt is the lack of water. As a matter of fact, Saudi Arabia scaled back its wheat production project shortly after realizing that it had drained its aquifers. The US is the number one world exporter of wheat, followed by Russia.
It is worth noting that Egypt has a population estimated at 80 million; second in Africa after Nigeria with about 160 million inhabitants. Egypt has 1 million new births each year. Although women want family planning, they can’t have it because the Egyptian government doesn’t allow it. The top 20 failing states have rapid growing population which is unsustainable. The situation will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. To a large extend, women are in the margin of the Egyptian workforce. The must be progressively integrated in the workforce through appropriate education and training programs.
Mubarak can stay in power for 30 more years if he wants, it is almost certain that the will not change the fate of this beautiful country in his life time. Some radical economic shift needs to happen. They will be made by future Egyptian leaders.
No matter who is power, Ablberadei or the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, some of the steps that the Egyptian leadership, needs to take includes raising water productivity as we did with land productivity. It is important to note that 1000 tons of water can only yield one ton of wheat. On top of that only 2.92% of Egyptian land is arable -- the same percentage as Yemen but with a very small population -- while countries like Burkina Faso considered very dry in some circles are at 17% and the US at 18%!
In the end, we need to come to the consensus that security threat in this century is not military but natural, intrinsically linked to water resources and land management. The world lags behind in redefining these issues; in the meantime the pundits will continue to consider all revolution in the Middle-East as democratic. The ramifications are therefore Economical (rise of food price), social (hunger) and political (decision making).
